The urban sprawl dynamics: does a neural network understand the spatial logic better than a cellular automata?

Cellular Automata are usually considered the most efficient technology to understand the spatial logic of urban dynamics: they are inherently spatial, they are simple and computationally efficient and are able to represent a wide range of pattern and situations. Nevertheless the implementation of a CA requires the formulation of explicit spatial rules which represents the greatest limit of this approach. Whatever rich and complex the rules are, they don`t are able to capture satisfactorily the variety of the real processes. Recent developments in natural algorithms, and particularly in Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), allow to reverse the approach by learning the rules and the behaviours in urban land use dynamics directly from the Data Base, following a bottom-up process. The basic problem is to discover how and in to what extent the land use change of each cell i at time t+1 is determined by the neighbouring conditions (CA assumptions) or by other social, environmental, territorial features (i.e. political maps, planning rules) which where holding at the previous time t. Once the NN has learned the rules, it is able to predict the changes at time t+2 and following. In this paper we show and discuss the prediction capability of different architectures of supervised and unsupervised ANN. The Case study and Data Base concern the land use dynamics, between two temporal thresholds, in the South metropolitan area of Milan. The records have been randomly split in two sets which have been alternatively used in Training and in Testing phase in each ANN. The different ANNs performances have been evaluated with Statistical Functions. Finally, for the prediction, we have used the average of the prediction values of the 10 ANNs, and tested the results through the usual Statistical Functions.

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Urban sustainability : complex interactions and the measurement of risk

This paper focuses on the concept of a sustainable city and its theoretical implications for the urban system. Urban sustainability is based on positive interactions among three different urban sub-systems : social, economic and physical, where social well-being coexists with economic development and environmental quality. This utopian scenario doesn’t appear. Affluent economy is often associated with poverty and criminality, labour variety and urban efficiency coexist with pollution and congestion. The research subject is the analysis of local risk and opportunity conditions, based on the application of a special definition of risk elaborated and made operative with the production of a set of maps representing the multidimensional facets of spatial organisation in urban sustainability. The interactions among the economic/social and environmental systems are complex and unpredictable and present the opportunity for a new methodology of scientific investigation : the connectionistic approach, processed by Self-Reflexive Neural Networks (SRNN). These Networks are a useful instrument of investigation and analogic questioning of the Data Base. Once the SRNN has learned the structure of the weights from the DB, by querying the network with the maximization or minimization of specific groups of attributes, it is possible to read the related properties and to rank the areas. The survey scale assumed by the research is purposefully aimed at the micro-scale and concerns the Municipality of Milan which is spatially divided into 144 zones

Urban sustainability : complex interactions and the measurement of risk

This paper focuses on the concept of a sustainable city and its theoretical implications for the urban system. Urban sustainability is based on positive interactions among three different urban sub-systems : social, economic and physical, where social well-being coexists with economic development and environmental quality. This utopian scenario doesn’t appear. Affluent economy is often associated with poverty and criminality, labour variety and urban efficiency coexist with pollution and congestion. The research subject is the analysis of local risk and opportunity conditions, based on the application of a special definition of risk elaborated and made operative with the production of a set of maps representing the multidimensional facets of spatial organisation in urban sustainability. The interactions among the economic/social and environmental systems are complex and unpredictable and present the opportunity for a new methodology of scientific investigation : the connectionistic approach, processed by Self-Reflexive Neural Networks (SRNN). These Networks are a useful instrument of investigation and analogic questioning of the Data Base. Once the SRNN has learned the structure of the weights from the DB, by querying the network with the maximization or minimization of specific groups of attributes, it is possible to read the related properties and to rank the areas. The survey scale assumed by the research is purposefully aimed at the micro-scale and concerns the Municipality of Milan which is spatially divided into 144 zones

Biosensors for measuring matrix metalloproteinases: An emerging research field.

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have been proposed as markers of many pathological conditions for their ability to degrade extracellular matrix components and remodel tissues. This review presents an overview of biosensors for the measurement of MMPs in serum, sputum and cell cultures. Major benefits and limitations of these technologies are discussed with respect to zymography and immunoassays, which are the reference methods to measure MMP activity and concentration. The paper also compares the analytical performances of sensors to the specific requirements for the application in clinical research, and comments on future trends in this field

Cost-Effectiveness of Childhood Immunization Reminder/Recall Systems in Urban Private Practices

Objective. To assess cost and cost-effectiveness of immunization reminder/recall systems in the private sector. Methods. A manual postcard system (mail) was compared with a computer-based telephone system (autodialer) and control. Costs included time costs and the cost of equipment and supplies. The cost per child and the incremental cost of the intervention relative to control were computed. Cost-effectiveness ratios were computed for return visits and for immunizations delivered. Results. The average cost per child was $2.28 for the mail group and$1.47 for the autodialer group. The incremental visit cost relative to the control was higher for the mail group ($9.52) than for the autodialer group ($3.48). The autodialer was more cost-effective in delivering immunizations: $4.06 per extra immunization (autodialer) versus$12.82 (mail). Conclusions. Excluding start-up costs, the autodialer system was most cost-effective. Including autodialer equipment costs, the autodialer system is more cost-effective only for larger practices

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AimThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery.MethodsThis was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin.ResultsOverall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P ConclusionOne in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease